File:GurievAlekseiGermanovich254x309.jpg

Napoleon^[1]

Mussolini^[2]

Hitler ^[3]

Brezhnev^[4]

putin ^[5]

Term Duration may refer to historic model of collapse of empires.

Duration is time between two events:
A. Some empire at the level of Federal Law abolishes, nullifies the separation of powers
B. The empire collapses

Historic dates of nulling of separation of powers and of the following collapse by documents ^{[6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14]} are collected:

Up to year 2024, the only 5 cases of the documented nulling are found, and only four of them are completed with the collapse of the empire.
Using data from the 4 first rows of the table, the likelihood density distribution \(f(t)\) for the mean value \(t\) of the Duration measured in years is calculated. It is shown in figure below. Specific values for events from table above are marked with blue bars. Specific values from the Sci-fi (discussed below) are marked with yellow bars (these values are not taken into account in the calculus).

In this model, the putin's Russia is expected to collapse approximately in 15 years since 2020.03.11 the Constitution provides lifetime ruling of the current usurper.
The collapse of RF is expected to happen between years 2028 and 2042. Then we'll be able to complete the 5th row of the table.
The collapse of RF before y.2008 or existence of RF after year 2042 should be considered as refutation of the model.

Likelyhood density (solid curve) for the mean duration \(\bar D\) to have value \(t\)

Calculus

The main assumptions and the main result for this model are announced in the preamble.
I describe the main results here.

Under assumption of normal distribution of the Duration, independent and the same through various epochs and countries, for the «true mean value» \(\bar D\), the probability \(P\) to get the sample average \(s\) within segment from \(t_1\) to \(t_2\) is estimated as the integral of the likelihood density \(f\):

\( \displaystyle P=\int_{t_1}^{t_2} f(t) \ \mathrm d t \)

Having \(N\) observed data of Duration (for the table above, \(N\!=\!4\), as the 5th case is not yet finished),
function \(f\) can be expressed through the Student Distribution with \(N\!-\!1\) degrees of freedom:

\( f(t)=\) Student\(_{N-1}\big((t\!-\!s)/U\big)/U \)

with the following parameters:

The sample average \(\displaystyle ~ s=\frac{1}{N} \sum_{i=1}^N h_i \)

were \(h_i\) is value of Duration measured in years for the \(i\)th row in the table. It is assumed, that 1 year \(=\) 365.2422 days .

For these four cases, \( s\approx 14.724477 \)

The estimated dispersion of the sample average \(\displaystyle ~ U= \sqrt{\frac{1}{(N\!-\! 1)N} \sum_{i=1}^N (h_i-s)^2 } \)

For the four values from the table, \(U\approx 1.668998 \)

In such a way, the mean value of Duration is estimated: \( \bar D \approx 15\) years, and the expected error of the estimate is of order of 2 years.

As for the particular values of the Duration, they are expected to deviate from the «exact mean value» \(\bar D\) for quantity \(\delta \approx 3 \mathrm{years} \pm 2 \mathrm{years} \)

The error of estimate of the dispersion \(\delta\) is of order of the quantity; with sample of 4 elements, there is no sense to consider it seriously before to get more data.

Any new independent result for the Duration is expected to deviate from the estimate of the mean value for some value of order of 4 years.

Often, the so-called «Two sigma rule» criterion ^[15][16] is applied. Roughly, the expected error should be doubled for the 95% hope to cover any new value (measured in the similar way) with the confidence segment. Following this rule, for any new case of the nulling (for example, the 5th case in the table above), the duration, measured in years, is expected to be the following:

\(h_5 \approx 15 \pm 8 \)

This estimate is discussed in the following sections.

Speculation

All the below is justification, description and discussion of the model: which observations are considered as evidence in favor of this model, which are basic assumptions for the model, how the curve above is plotted, what does it predict and how the model can be rejected.

Roughly, I try to constrict the concept, that satisfies the TORI axioms.

There are many examples when some country change form monarchy and autocracy to democracy and constitutional state.

There are many absolute monarchies in the Human history; many of them last during centuries.

There are many examples of tyrannys the pretend to be a democracy, having pretty liberal laws that are permanently violated by the dictator and his administration (in the most observed cases, such a dictator is male).

But there are not so many cases documented when formally democratic state prescribe the autocracy in the Federal law, abolishing the Separation of powers in order to provide the leader the lifetime dictatorship.
Namely these cases are subject of this article.

To year 2024, five cases are detected, when the federal law is changed providing the lifetime leadership for the "First Person" of the society.
But no one case is detected, when the Empire lasted more than 20 years after such a nulling of the Federal Law. In for cases, the Empire collapses in 12-20 years after abolishing of Separation of powers.

The Duration of such an empire seems to be distributed within this interval.

Here, the historic examples are considered, the mean value of Duration is estimated.

Case of Italy

Deviation of Duration for Italy happen to be bigger than in other cases.

This may indicate, that the Mussolini's empire actually had collapsed before 1947.12.27; perhaps, in year 1945 even earlier.

The correction of the date could make the estimate for the mean duration smaller, and reduce the mean-square deviation.

But I did not find a document, that would state another date for the collapse of the Italian empire. So, I keep the estimate «as is».

Case of RF

Amusingly, the interval \(h_5 \approx 15 \pm 8 \) covers the two estimates suggested in the sci-fi books:
1. The audiobook from year 2021 by Семён Скрепецкий (Semen Skrepetski) entitled «Россия 2028»^[17], in Russian.
2. The novel from century 20 by Войнович Владимир Николаевич (Voinovich Vladimir Nikolaevich) entitled «Москва 2042» (The English translation «Moscow 2042» is announced ^[18]).
Dates of collapse of RF are suggested in these books, giving the two values, \( h_5\!=\!8 \) and \( h_5\!=\!22 \). These values are marked in the graphic above with two yellow vertical bars. They are labeled with words «Russia 2028» and «Moscow 2042». Such a coincidence can be considered as an indirect confirmation of the estimate above.

The similar error 8 years appears in the estimate by Амальрик Андрей Алексеевич (Andrei Amalrik) in his article entitled «Просуществует ли Советский Союз до 1984 года»^[19] («Will the Soviet Union Survive until 1984»). His estimate referred to the prediction of the collapse of the USSR (aka «Collapse of USSR», «Dissolution of the Soviet Union»). The forecast by Amalrik seems to be the best (most accurate) among all predictions available at the time of the first publication of that article.

Churov comb ^[20], y.2012

The estimates by Amalrick, by Voinovich and by Skrepetski do not provide the way, how the year of the expected collapse of the country had been calculated. In this sense, their estimates are not reproducible. Below I try to present an independent reproducible estimate.

The amount of putinists in Russia can be estimated from evidence of the election fraud. The width of peaks at the Churov comb (пила Чурова) and width of the Pamfilova peak (Пик Памфиловой) count only few votes. This incicates, that of order of a million of the Russian electors vote for putin and for his party «Edro» (Едро, aka «Партия жуликов и воров»); other votes for these crimes are surpliced by the corrupted election committees.

On the other hand, the Russian «special military operation follows the graphic» ^{[21][22][23][24]}. This graphic is shown in figure at right with blue curve; the Russian military loss \(L\) is extrapolated with quadratic function:
\(L = 0.8 t^2 \) where \(t\) is time since the beginning of year 2022, measured in days. Roughly, each day, the mean number of Russian occupants, demilitarized in Ukraine per day, increases for unity. The «График спецоперации» is confirmed by estimates at the Ukrainian site ^[25]; the data are shown with thin dark curve. For comparison, the yellow curve shows the more recent and more modest estimate \(L = 0.6 t^2 \).
In year 2024 the total amount of «demilitarized» and «denazified» Russian orks reaches half million. In year 2025, it is expected to approach a million, mentioned above; this means almost complete denazification of the Russian army. The result strongly depend on the will of the Western countries, mainly the USA and the UK, to fulfill the guaranties declared in the Budapest memorandum.
In addition, it is difficult to estimate, how soon the collapse of RF should happen since the demilitarization and denazification of the Russian army. In such a way, at least for year 2024, it is difficult to improve the estimate of year of the collapse of RF with any independent model. The statistic estimate above (year 2035 \(\pm\) 8 years) seems to be most supported among the forecasts.

Conclusion

Historic documents of various epochs and countries that are analyzed in search for similarities.
The similarity is found for cases when the Federal Law of an empire nullifies the separation of powers:
in no more than 19 years since the nulling, the empire collapses.

Five cases of such nulling are found. They refer to
1. Napoleon's France,
2. Mussolini's Italy,
3. Hitler's Germany,
4. Brezhnev's USSR,
5. putin's RF.
These cases are mentioned in Table 1.

The first four cases above are taken into account for the statistic analysis. The conjectures are suggested:

1. There exist fundamental historic constant \(\bar D \) that determines the mean value of length of the time interval between two events:
A. The law of an Empire is nullified eliminating the separation of powers, allowing the same dictator to remain his power forever.
B. The Empire collapse.

2. The length of this time interval is denoted with term «Duration».
As a zero-th hypothesis it is assumed, that Durations are distributed normally and independently.

3. Whith this hypothesis, the mean value \(\bar D \) and the dispersion \(\delta\) are estimated:

\(\bar D \approx 15 \mathrm{years} \pm 2 \mathrm{years} \)

\(\delta \approx 3 \mathrm{years} \pm 2 \mathrm{years} \)

The Likelihood density for the mean Duration is expressed through the Student Distribution with 3 degrees of freedom (Figure 1.)

4. On the base of these estimates, at the significance level 95%, the Duration of any new case is expected to happen of order of

\(D \approx 15 \mathrm{years} \pm 8 \mathrm{years} \)

5. The 5th case of the Table 1 can be used to check the hypothesis.
The so-called «Russian Federation» (RF) is expected to collapse approximately in 15 years since the nulling of the Russian Constitution, id est, approximately in year 2035. The collapse of RF before year 2008 or its remaining after year 2042 should be considered as refutation of the conjecture.

6. If the conjecture happens to be confirmed with the 5th case, it can be used for prediction of future historic events.

7. The same approach should be used to generate other conjectures about other similarities in the historical events.
I expect some of such conjectures to be confirmed; then they can be used for modeling of historic events.

Warning

The analysis above is not an attempt to interfere the historic events.

The repetition of constructions and collapses of the empires (and the resulting wars indicate), that the historic science does not affect the behavior of the dictators.

Either the fuhrers no not know the history (and do not want to know it), or they understand, that the dictatorship is not efficient and lead their countries to a crash intentionally, following the rule «Après moi le déluge» (see also «Мы попадём в рай а они сдохнут», in Russian).

In any of these case, the historic model above is not supposed to affect the behaviors of dictators and their chime accomplishes.

References

Keywords

«Après moi le déluge», «Brezhnev Constitution», «Budapest memorandum», «Collapse of RF», «Fascism», «Mechanisms of history», «Moscow2042», «Moscovia», «Nulling», «Orwell1984», «Separation of powers», «Student Distribution», «[[]]», «Terror», «USSR», «Usurpation», «Will the Soviet Union Survive until 1984»,

«Брежневская конституция», «Вертикаль власти», «Войнович Владимир Николаевич», «Всех убьём, всех ограбим», «Гаага», «Гитлер Адольф Алоизиевич», «Диктатура», «Машины истории», «Москва2042», «Московия», «Мы попадём в рай а они сдохнут», «[[]]», «Новый Мировой Порядок», «[[]]», «Обнуление», «Орвелл1984», «Паханат», «Просуществует ли Советский Союз до 1984 года», «Путинская мировая война», «Распад РФ», «Распад СССР», «Россия2028», «Самодержавие», «Фашизм»,»,