Difference between revisions of "File:2021.12.05.rud.png"

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Death tall from [[Covid]] in Russia versus time.
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Screenshot of picture by [[Worldometer]]
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<ref name="w">
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https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/russia/
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WORLD / COUNTRIES / RUSSIA
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Last updated: December 04, 2021, 22:41 GMT
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Coronavirus Cases: 9,769,011
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Deaths: 280,072
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Recovered: 8,471,813
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</ref>.<br>
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Worldometer does not provide any easy access to the tables of values used to plot the pictures.
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<div style="margin:-2px -14px 0px -200px; background-color:#fff">
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<div style="margin:0px 0px 0px 30px; line-height:1.2em">
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==Discussion==
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<div style="float:right; margin:-40px 0px 0px 0px; background-color:#fff">
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[[File:2021.12.05.RuDcomp.png|440px]]
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</div>
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The picture by Worldometer is compared with data by Owid
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<ref>https://covid.ourworldindata.org/data/owid-covid-data.csv
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2021.12.04
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</ref>
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in picture at right. Data by Owid are shown with black curve.
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The reasonable agreement takes place; the relative deviation is of order of one percent;
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it corresponds to the width of the orange line.<br>
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The growth seem to be a little bit faster than quadratic.
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Number of patients dead of [[Covid]] in [[Russia]] can be approximated with function
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\(F(T)=0.024 \, T^{5/2} \)
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where \(T\) is time since 2020.02.15, measured in days.<br>
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This function is shown in figure at right with blue curve.
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<!--
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Example: for time \(T=10^4\), the extrapolation suggests value
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\( 0.024*10^{10} = 240*10^6\)
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that exceeds population of Russia. <br>
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!-->
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Let \( t=T/365.2425 \) be time measured in years;
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then
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\( f(t)=F(T)=61188 \, T^{5/2} \)
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After 16 years, the tall estimate becomes about of
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\(62288*4^5\approx 64*10^6\)
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After 22 years, the tall estimate becomes about of
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\( 62288*22^{5/2} \approx 141*10^6 \)
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that exceeds population of Russia.<br>
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In such a way, the extrapolation should become invalid before year 2042, mentioned in novel <ref>https://knijky.ru/books/moskva-2042 Владимир Войнович. Москва 2042.</ref> by Vladimir Voinovich.
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==References==
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<references/>
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[[Category:Collapse of RF]]
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[[Category:Covid]]
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[[Category:Designate Russia as state sponsor of terrorism]]
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[[Category:Extrapolation]]
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[[Category:Kestus]]
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[[Category:Russia]]
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[[Category:Screenshot]]
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[[Category:Worldometer]]

Revision as of 09:56, 5 December 2021

Death tall from Covid in Russia versus time. Screenshot of picture by Worldometer [1].
Worldometer does not provide any easy access to the tables of values used to plot the pictures.

Discussion

2021.12.05.RuDcomp.png

The picture by Worldometer is compared with data by Owid [2] in picture at right. Data by Owid are shown with black curve.

The reasonable agreement takes place; the relative deviation is of order of one percent; it corresponds to the width of the orange line.
The growth seem to be a little bit faster than quadratic.

Number of patients dead of Covid in Russia can be approximated with function

\(F(T)=0.024 \, T^{5/2} \)

where \(T\) is time since 2020.02.15, measured in days.
This function is shown in figure at right with blue curve.

Let \( t=T/365.2425 \) be time measured in years; then

\( f(t)=F(T)=61188 \, T^{5/2} \)

After 16 years, the tall estimate becomes about of \(62288*4^5\approx 64*10^6\)

After 22 years, the tall estimate becomes about of

\( 62288*22^{5/2} \approx 141*10^6 \)

that exceeds population of Russia.
In such a way, the extrapolation should become invalid before year 2042, mentioned in novel [3] by Vladimir Voinovich.

References

  1. ↑ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/russia/ WORLD / COUNTRIES / RUSSIA Last updated: December 04, 2021, 22:41 GMT Coronavirus Cases: 9,769,011 Deaths: 280,072 Recovered: 8,471,813
  2. ↑ https://covid.ourworldindata.org/data/owid-covid-data.csv 2021.12.04
  3. ↑ https://knijky.ru/books/moskva-2042 Владимир Войнович. Москва 2042.

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